Broken Bat - Discussion Forum: 2035 Cup

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Post ID	Date & Time	Game Date

#58183	04/16/2018 3:15:41 pm	Aug 30th, 2035
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	That was a crazy finish. No runs scored by either team thru seven and then the bullpens completely sucked. Earlier we had bases loaded with no one out and failed to score. Come on. Then bases loaded in the ninth and lost by one. That was way too painful to take. Congrats.

#58185	04/16/2018 3:57:33 pm	Aug 30th, 2035
hurstdm Joined: 01/18/2017 Posts: 576 Murfreesboro Moo Cows VI.5	Can we just mention the obscene mathematical odds of a back-to-back Cup run in Broken Bat? Even just using scribble math, I think it's something like a 1 in 500,000 shot for a team to win successive Cups. If I assume only teams in League III or above have a realistic shot, I think the odds are still something like 1 in 7000. Isn't that something like a .01% chance? Wow. (<---awed understatement)

#58186	04/16/2018 4:56:05 pm	Aug 31st, 2035
tokuchi Joined: 02/11/2017 Posts: 36 Smyrna Sounds V.7	Given that it has already happened tree times in 34 opportunities during the 35 cup seasons, it shouldn't be less than 2%. Not that it takes anything away from the achievement. Congrats Terre Haute!

#58188	04/16/2018 9:35:59 pm	Aug 31st, 2035
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	I think it's something like a 1 in 500,000 shot for a team to win successive Cups. If I assume only teams in League III or above have a realistic shot, I think the odds are still something like 1 in 7000. Isn't that something like a .01% chance? That's not how you solve the problem. To make things easy, let's just say there are 100 teams with an equal shot to win the Cup. The odds then for a team to win back to back Cups is 100 times 100, which is 10,000. Nope. It's much simpler than that. The odds to win consecutive Cups in that scenario are 1 in 100. It's the same for any of them to repeat as it is for one of them to win once. As was stated above, don't lose sight of the fact how awesome a run it was for Terre Haute. And, by the way, there aren't any asterisks for winning nor should there be. Job well done.

#58190	04/17/2018 7:22:30 am	Aug 31st, 2035
hurstdm Joined: 01/18/2017 Posts: 576 Murfreesboro Moo Cows VI.5	Doesn't it depend on the exact question asked? "What are the odds of a team winning back to back Cups?" is different from "What are the odds team X will win back to back Cups?" From the perspective of the Murfreesboro Cowboys (or the Magicians), wouldn't the odds be something like 1 in 500,000 to win the next two in a row? Gotta win 1 to win 2. Wow.

#58195	04/17/2018 6:42:38 pm	Sep 4th, 2035
Cactusguy21 Joined: 07/25/2017 Posts: 815 Presque Isle Vikings III.4	The odds of there being a team winning a cup back to back is simply equal to the probability of a team winning a single cup. Let’s say there are 100 teams that could win. That means there’s a 1/100 chance that it will be a back to back victory, because someone from that 100 had to have won last year.

#58197	04/18/2018 6:54:00 am	Sep 4th, 2035
Bucfan Joined: 09/23/2014 Posts: 50 Inactive	Thanks to everyone for your kind words and congratulations. Buried deep in the bowels of this forum, I imagine there is still a post or two about how bad this team was when I inherited it. The team I acquired was on its way to losing nearly 100 games ... in Division 6. We were downright awful. Since then, it's been a very long, and sometimes frustrating, journey to piece together a team that is able to accomplish what this one has. Regardless of the odds of winning two in a row, my message to everyone is this: If I can do it, so can you. Be patient and you'll get there. As far as that championship series, if you'd asked me beforehand if I could win it with future Hall of Famer Duarte out with an injury, and Hines and Hebert combining for 0 extra base hits, I would've laughed and said no way. But Watanabe, Salinas and others stepped up and carried us. Finally, the newly expanded trophy case has been finished and the Cup trophies are on display, just in time for Denver's visit tonight!

#58198	04/18/2018 8:16:14 am	Sep 4th, 2035
MukilteoMike Joined: 08/09/2014 Posts: 3294 Inactive	Grand slams in both games kind of helps things. The first one was hit by pitch, hit by pitch, walk, hit it out of the park. That's how you lose a game. Updated Wednesday, April 18 2018 @ 8:19:03 am PDT

#58199	04/18/2018 12:49:19 pm	Sep 4th, 2035
the gizmo Joined: 02/07/2013 Posts: 574 Inactive	It is one in 10,000 to win back to back cups with 100 teams It is one in 100 for any team to win one Use this scenario 100 lottery balls in one machine each representing a team and you have to pick two Odds are one in 9,900 to get both correct- 100x99 But Use 2 machines of 100 balls, representing 2 seasons and having to pick one team out of each It now is 100x100 One out of 10,000 And congrats

#58201	04/18/2018 4:46:35 pm	Sep 7th, 2035
Rock777 Joined: 09/21/2014 Posts: 9596 Haverhill Halflings III.1	Its 1 in 10,000 for a specific team to win back to back. Its 1 in 100 for any team in the league to win back to back. In other words, its 1 in a 100 for the winner of the previous season to win in the following season. Completely depends on how the question is phrased. This is precisely why statistics are more often used to "prove" a point than to learn anything real. In this game with 756 teams, it is 1 in 576,536 for a specific team to win back to back cups, but only 1 in 756 for the previous years winner to repeat. That is of course assuming all teams are equal and have an equal chance to win, which is not true. So the odds are actually much better than that.